Evaluating the sensitivity of fire danger to different climate change scenarios in Europe

Description

This package evaluates the sensitivity of fire danger to different climate scenarios across Europe. 

The related dataset integrates a 30-year Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), generated using the Global ECMWF Fire Forecast model (GEFF), forced by ERA5 reanalysis data (1981-2010). These simulations incorporate perturbations in temperature and precipitation forcings based on CMIP6 climate projections under the SSP2-4.5 medium mitigation scenario. The perturbed forcing data were produced by modifying the daily temperature and precipitation data from ERA5 for the period of control from 1980 to 2010, using monthly factors that were estimated from a combination of climate change signals obtained from CMIP6 multi-model simulations, along with mean annual perturbations. 

One potential application of this data is to assess the likelihood of changes in extreme fire events across Europe. In "Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate" study, we categorise "extreme fires" as those with a 20-year return period. This enables us to investigate how shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns may alter the frequency and intensity of such fires under different climatic scenarios. One of the study's notable findings is the increased vulnerability of southern Europe to catastrophic fires. Under a moderate CMIP6 scenario, areas in southern Europe could experience a tenfold increase in the probability of such devastating fires occurring annually. This projection raises concerns about the resilience of ecosystems and communities in this region. While southern Europe is of particular concern, the study also warns that if global temperatures reach the critical threshold of +2°C, central and northern Europe will not be immune to escalating wildfire risks during droughts. This shift highlights the far-reaching consequences of climate change, extending the threat of wildfires beyond traditionally susceptible regions. The study also projects an extension of the fire season by ten days in at least 68% of southern Europe in the near future. Without mitigation or adaptation measures, this expansion may overwhelm national fire suppression capacities and have significant social and ecological impacts.

The code source of GEFF model is included within this knowledge package. 

This package can aid in predicting areas at risk of fire in Europe, informing adaptive planning, enhancing emergency preparedness, and  strengthening ecosystem resilience against wildfires.

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